Introduction
'Beyond the 4% rule: The science of retirement portfolios that last a lifetime' was published in 2018 by Abraham Okusanya.
Abraham first appeared on my radar in 2013 (soon after he had formed his consultancy firm Finalytiq) when he wrote a piece on Neil Woodford and received a lot of feedback (not all positive!). Abraham has since launched a discretionary fund management (DFM) service named Betafolio (that follows a similar investing style to Tim Hale at Albion Strategic Consulting). In addition, he has released a piece of software, Timeline, used to evaluate the chances that a portfolio might run out in retirement. We use Timeline in our day-to-day work, and I used it extensively in the case study for my book, Planning for Retirement: Your Guide to Financial Freedom.
Retirement income history
The book begins by discussing the history of retirement incomes, from Otto von Bismarck's 1881 proposal of what was effectively the first state pension to the 2015 pension freedoms in the UK.
The two retirement income philosophies are then covered. On one side, safety-first advocates believe that essential spending should be covered by income sources that aren’t at the mercy of investment markets, such as state pensions, final salary schemes, and annuities. In contrast, those advocating a probability-based approach believe that investment, inflation and longevity risks should all be considered and used to estimate how likely the retirement pot might be exhausted.
Sequencing risk and withdrawal strategies
The book then covers sequencing risk (or pound cost ravaging, as Abraham likes to call it) and how investment returns during the first decade are linked to portfolio sustainability.
He next looks at the theories that don’t work, from managing volatility in a retirement portfolio, the limitations (Abraham has a less polite interpretation!) of a natural yield approach (living off the dividend income from a portfolio), to the downsides of cash buffers.
Abraham then covers flexible withdrawal strategies (i.e. not just increasing withdrawals by inflation each year) with inflation adjustment options, including Guyton Klinger guardrails and advanced withdrawal rules such as ‘ratcheting’.
The final sections of the book examine what can impact the sustainable withdrawal rate. These include asset allocation, longevity, and fees and how they can be used to bake a 'layer cake' of a sustainable withdrawal rate.
Conclusion
Abraham's book was the first that helped to plan a sustainable retirement for a UK retiree, with most books before this tending to be aimed at US audiences (for example, those by renowned retirement expert Wade Pfau). It deserves its place on the bookshelf for those planning for retirement (and those helping them!). That said, I felt that some of the examples in the book were not always as clear as they could be, and the book would’ve benefitted from a case study where the impact of factors affecting SWR was in one place. Fortunately, we've covered this in our series of blog posts on sustainable withdrawal strategies, including Bill Bengen's work and the Guyton-Klinger guardrails!
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About us
The team at Pyrford Financial Planning are Independent Financial Advisers based in Weybridge, Surrey. We specialise in retirement planning and provide pension advice, investment advice and inheritance tax advice.
Our office telephone number is 01932 645150.
Our office address is No 5, The Heights, Weybridge KT13 0NY
Please note: This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.
Although best efforts are made to ensure all information is accurate, you should not rely on this blog for your personal situation or planning.
The value of your investment can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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